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The Euro for Bosnia now

politicki.ba

"And yes we can – we did it for Romania and Bulgaria and we can do it, again".

By: Gunther Fehlinger


It is time for the Euro for Bosnia & Herzegovina. The EU shall offer the Euro as currency for Bosnia in exchange of recognition of the Republic of Kosovo. 

This offer should be made by the EU Council President Charles Michel following the EU Western Balkans Summit on 6th of October 2021. The timing is perfect, as Croatia has joined the Euro, rolling out the Euro ready for January 2023. The decision to put Nikola Tesla on Croatian Euro coins has led to a major public debate on the Euro in Serbia and Bosnia so the terrain is prepared. The same offer should be made to Serbia – the Euro as currency for Serbia for recognition of Kosovo. Serbia will reject but will Bosnia? Bosnian majority is for NATO and for EU and for recognition of Kosovo.  

Stay with the Mark, alone?

Bosnia is the last European economy using the Mark, not the German but the Bosnian Konvertible Mark – pegged in past to the Mark from 1997 and since 2000 to the Euro. Same as in Montenegro and Kosovo the victims of Serb aggression in 1990s opted for the German Mark as shadow currency to escape the failed YU Dinar. While Montenegro and Kosovo were no sovereign states when the Euro was replacing the Mark in 2000, Bosnia was a sovereign state based on Dayton Peace, so Bosnia kept its own Mark when Kosovo and Montenegro opted for the Euro in March 2002. 

Croatia in Eurozone and Bosnia stays stuck with the Mark?

Nobody had the courage to change the currency to the Euro while the world was moving on. Now with Croatia joining, Slovenia in Eurozone, Montenegro and Kosovo using the Euro, and most Bosnians living and working and trading and investing in, from or with the Eurozone there is only Serbia left with a competing currency system and even the Serb dinar is stabilized to the Euro at 117 since 2014 after a long tragic history of decline. Most FDI, donor support, remittance or export revenue for Bosnia are with or from the Eurozone. Is the Bosnian identity built on the Mark? The Euro is widely accepted and so easy to convert 2:1 so why not have the real thing and now? Is it a risk for the Eurozone if Bosnia adopts the Euro? The Euro zone has 15 trillion $ GDP, compared to Bosnia has 22 billion GDP. Bosnia debt is too big for Eurozone! Bosnia public debt is 8,4 Billion $ in 2021, the Eurzone has 13 trillion $ debt today and so the risk for the Eurozone is limited. 

The Euro as symbol for European unification

As the Serb minority with its unjustified constitutional veto, vetoes progress for Bosnia, is blocking NATO future of Bosnia, and so the EU Candidate Status is blocked by EU, as there is too little progress, again blocked by the Serbian veto the accession perspective of Bosnia is blocked and Bosnia is stuck. 

Here the Euro adoption is the game changer. The Euro for Bosnia will inspire Bosnian citizens that EU and NATO cares for Bosnia and the EU future is real. Economic integration is happening and this will inspire all Bosnians to stay and work for the future of Bosnia in NATO and EU. A future which the Euro will symbolize and materialize and accelerate. 

Bosnia should lead the way, Albania and North Macedonia shall follow

Bosnia should lead but Albania & North Macedonia should adopt the Euro simultaneously, to accelerate their own EU future but most significantly to make the case for the same offer for Serbia to adopt the Euro for recognition of the Republic of Kosovo. Serbian middle class will understand very well if Bosnia, Albania, North Macedonia will adopt the Euro at same time when Croatia and Bulgaria will join Eurozone if there is reason left in Brussels, Frankfurt and Bucharest – Romania will as well join Eurozone and Serbia will be left alone with Hungary rejecting the Euro as part of Russian block in Central Europe. This will lead to the political shifts away from Alexander Vucic regime allied with Orban and Putin. 

Dodik will block this deal – sure he will

Yes Dodik has the power to block Bosnia to adopt the Euro but let him share the blame. It is time for the Bosnians and Croats in Bosnia to call for the Euro in BiH and yes Dodik will block this but let his voters know. The Euro is reality in the hearts and minds of the millions of Bosnian Serbs living in EU and well let Dodik find the excuses and explanation why he is opposing the Euro. All Serbs in Bosnia know he loves the Euro for himself. Opposing the Euro will make him few friends in Banja Luka middle class. He will be part of the past, fast. 

The Euro, tool for peace or will we face war, again?

Last week the Serbian – Kosovo car number plate crisis and the Sunday escalation by Serbia and the ultimatum of Serbia against NATO and Kosovo and the visit of the Russian Ambassador to the Serb troops at the Serb- Kosovo border has showed how toxic the status quo is between Serbia and Kosovo. To make the peace offer to Serbia, the Euro for recognition of Kosovo -this is simple much more credible if Bosnia adopts the Euro first and recognizes Kosovo and the debate in Bosnia will spill over to Serbia. And for a change, we in EU start to set the agenda for peace after a lost decade of retreat, defeats and multiple shocks empowering the forces of Serb nationalism backed by revanchist Russia. 

Bosnia, Kosovo and Serbia in EU, voting for European Parliament in 2029 

Adopting the Euro in Bosnia should not be a isolated measure but part of a broader peace strategy for Bosnia to join NATO next step and EU in 2029 and so should be Kosovo and once in NATO and fully compliant with CFSP Serbia as well. And best all 3 together as new Member States of EU in 2029 following the precedent of Montenegro, Albania and North Macedonia in EU in 2024. 

And yes we can – we did it for Romania and Bulgaria and we can do it, again.

It worked very well, and true it was not easy but progress to prosperity never is. But with the Euro as currency Bosnia is a decisive step closer to EU so it is time for the Euro now.


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